Anticpatory actions are preventive measures to mitigate the damage of a potential disaster such as a flood or typhoon, instead of focusing purely on responsive actions. Examples of anticipatory action include harvesting of crops just before a hurricane makes landfall, or preemptively distributing cash before a flood has materialized. An anticipatory action framework should decide on:
– The trigger. Conditions under which action is initiated. A condition to trigger action for floods could be that the forecasted river discharge exceeds a predetermined threshold.
– The action plan. Upon trigger activation, which action should be implemented and how long will implementation take.
Although anticipatory action has been institutionalized within multiple humanitarian aid organizations, frameworks lack a structural approach to determine pivotal decisions. In collaboration with the Red Cross, we will leverage mathematical modelling (e.g. stochastic optimization) to assist humanitarian policy makers in their decision-making process.
